PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 1 sept 2026, 20:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidad implícita actual
December 31 17%-1.0ptLíder entre 7 opciones
Calidad del mercado
43 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
8,6 €
Liquidez
1,8 mil €
Baja liquidezSpread
0.1 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
192
Cambio 7d
-0.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado29 dic 25, 22:051 ene 27, 4:59
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.