PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoLiquidado por el proveedor, mercado por mercado
Resuelto: 8 oct 2026, 0:31
Este evento no tiene un único ganador. El proveedor liquidó cada mercado por separado; cada mercado muestra su propio resultado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 8 oct 2026, 0:21 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
September 150%
October 31100%
September 30100%
October 31Ganada
September 30Ganada
September 15Perdida
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran target Jordan by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Egypt by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel attack Iraq in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Iraq.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.