PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 94%+0.5pt
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
824,1 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
5.0% / 7.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
1
Cambio 7d
-1.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
23 abr 26, 22:20 UTC31 mar 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Recession this year?
KalshiUK Recession in 2026?
PolymarketUS recession by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
- For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 96,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 656,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 85,1 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 386 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 25,6 mil €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 29,4 mil €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Japan recession in 2026??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 94% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Japan recession in 2026??
- Está previsto que Japan recession in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Japan recession in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.