PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 90%-4.0pt
Calidad del mercado
64 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
933,8 €
Liquidez
1,7 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
3
Cambio 7d
+2.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
23 abr 26, 22:25 UTC31 mar 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters.
- Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+5.0pt83.2%
- No change-5.0pt15.8%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 131,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,6 M €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+2.0pt6%
- Volumen total
- 3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 19,7 mil €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.3%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.0%+1.0pt98%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.2%+8.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt99%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 87,2 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 655,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,7 mil €
KALSHI2026: Trump's dream year?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volumen total
- 499,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3,6 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- US recession by end of 2026?
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- Unemployment in September
- How many jobs added in September?
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de UK Recession in 2026??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 14 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve UK Recession in 2026??
- Está previsto que UK Recession in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida UK Recession in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.