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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Geopolítica
  3. European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

3.5% (24h)GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope6m
PolymarketPolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
December 31
December 31 13%-3.5%
Calidad del mercado

56 / 100

Calidad media
Volumen 24h

213,2 €

Liquidez

24,9 mil €

Alta liquidez
Compra / Venta

10.0% / 15.0%

Spread

50.0%

Spread amplio
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 3 minutos

28 dic 25, 23:1231 dic 26, 0:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

December 3113%

Reglas

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.

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Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$62,698.48+2.40%EthereumETH$1,651.75+1.77%SolanaSOL$65.18+1.84%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+2.00%XRPXRP$1.12+0.54%BNBBNB$595.51+1.80%

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Reglas

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.