U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
2.0 pts (24h)Política de EE. UU.One-OffRusia / UcraniaGeopolíticaChinaEuropa1a
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
2027 · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
—
Referencia guardada
2027 38%Líder entre 3 opciones
2027 38%Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
36,3 mil €
Alta liquidezInterés abierto
9,1 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
2027Spread
—
Comentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-3.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
28 may 26, 19:41 UTC1 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- No
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · 2027
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
—
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by which date?
PolymarketUkraine agrees not to join NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Ireland give up its neutrality before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill it be illegal to give a child an adult phone before 2036?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024, US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.
