Will it be illegal to give a child an adult phone before 2036?
EuropaOne-OffRegulaciónSociedad y cultura9a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
No 78.9%
No 78.9%Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 40 minutos
25 oct 26, 9:37 UTC31 dic 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2036, at least 5 of these 9 countries (US, UK, France, Australia, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea) have legally enforceable restrictions prohibiting the provision or enabling of ordinary adult-level phone access for children under 16.
- An adult phone is a general-purpose personal communication device operating with the access privileges ordinarily available to adults, without additional child-specific restrictions.
- The reference point is a standard, unsupervised iPhone, Android, or GrapheneOS smartphone in 2026, with general internet access, third-party apps, social media, and messaging.
- A child phone is an equivalent device operating under additional, legally mandated age-based restrictions.
- Adult and child phones may use identical hardware, with the distinction existing entirely in software, accounts, permissions, or other technical controls.
- Crucially, "unrestricted" is relative to what adults are legally and practically permitted to use at the time, not an absolute requirement to preserve 2026 capabilities.
