PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
25 bps increase 100%Líder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado
87 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
40,4 mil €
Liquidez
164,1 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
0.1 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
17 jun 26, 22:53 UTC10 sept 26, 11:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Polymarket🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the House pass a cap on federal student loan interest rates?
KalshiWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExReglas
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
2 plataformas cotizan actualmente este mercado. La probabilidad de referencia ponderada por liquidez de CoinRithm para 25 bps increase es del 100%. Las cotizaciones difieren en unos 1 punto porcentual entre las plataformas más alejadas. Las plataformas no coinciden en qué resultado va por delante.
Referencia CoinRithm 25 bps increase 100% · 2 plataformas · 1 pt de dispersion entre venues
- También disponible en Kalshi — European Central Bank rate decision in September · Hike 1-25bps 95%
- También disponible en Limitless — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 · 25 bps increase 98%
