PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEsperando resolución verificada: No change
CoinRithm espera una liquidación confirmada por el proveedor antes de tratar este mercado como resuelto.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
No change 100%+0.9ptLíder entre 5 opciones
No change 100%+0.9ptCalidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
24,2 mil €
Liquidez
308,1 mil €
Alta liquidezInterés abierto
166 mil US$
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+3.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado24 jul 26, 16:03 UTC30 oct 26, 3:59 UTC
Cronología de Probabilidad
No change100%
25 bps increase0%
50+ bps increase0%
No change100%
25 bps decrease0%
25 bps increase0%
50+ bps decrease0%
50+ bps increase0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
PolymarketWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Reserve Bank of Australia raise the rate 25bps at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExReglas
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
