Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.8%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 26, 19:33 UTC6 jun 28, 21:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
WW3: Begins With Ukraine
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketWill Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation before May begins
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a World War III begins in 2026.
- A "world war" applies to armed conflicts between major world powers spanning multiple regions of the globe.
- Resolution requires:
- Direct military conflict between major powers (US, China, Russia, or equivalent) across multiple geographic regions
- Formal declarations of war or equivalent by at least two major powers against each other, or undeniable open hostilities that persist for a sustained period
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de WW3 begins in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 97% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve WW3 begins in 2026?
- Está previsto que WW3 begins in 2026 se resuelva el 6 de junio de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida WW3 begins in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria