Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
4.0 pts (24h)GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East21d
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
September 30 11%-5.5ptLíder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado
67 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
1,5 mil €
Liquidez
60,4 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
2.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
2
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
2 sept 26, 21:39 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred).
- The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon.