Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 79.8%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado10 feb 26, 18:37 UTC1 ene 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PolymarketWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExReglas
Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.
- Current rate ~4.0%.
- Key risk factors: tariff-driven disruption, federal workforce reductions.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 80% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.