Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMaterias primasChina1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 58.6%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 30 minutos
4 may 26, 17:53 UTC31 may 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsAluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026
KalshiWill the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves YES if UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 4.0 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- UC Rusal is the world's largest primary aluminum producer outside China. 2024 actual production was 3.992 Mt, holding flat through the post-2022 sanction period.
- The 4.0 Mt strike for 2027 reflects steady-state operations; significant deviation up requires meaningful policy or end-market re-routing.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- UC Rusal annual report and interim results https://rusal.ru/en/investors/
