Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 61.1%
Pronosticadores
43
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado11 nov 23, 7:37 UTC18 nov 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiReglas
"Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements
- No strict criteria.
- Resolves to my or a resolution council's judgment if there's any disagreement, resolution should agree with the consensus if there is one.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 61% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years??
- Está previsto que Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? se resuelva el 18 de noviembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: "Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements