¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first??

Manifold Markets cotiza Universal Basic Income al 71.9% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Universal Basic Income 71.9%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 18 horas

Desactualizado

8 ago 25, 3:07 UTC31 dic 50, 6:17 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

not sure what the exact cutoff for Mass Unemployment is (10%, 20%, 50%) and for how long that rate needs to last

but I think maybe 20% for a year seems reasonable (assuming it’s due to AI automation rather than other factors e.g. pandemics, wars, etc.) the spirit of the market is when it’s normalized to not be employed long term.
for UBI to count, it needs to be on the order of $1000 a month (i.e. enough to cover living expenses) so comparable to Social Security
UBC has to be through the government (not the current equivalent of ChatGPT free tier) unless a corporation achieves an absurd amount of profit (e.g 1% of world gdp ~1T) and has a windfall or similar agreement to share their wealth with all citizens.
Currently don’t like how long the description is so I’m open to suggestions to simplify the the criteria but the main goal is to see which of UBI or UBC is more likely to actually happen given that they seem unlikely right now.
Should resolve to one of the 2 unless