Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
EconomíaOne-OffIAMacro & Economy8aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.5%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
28 ago 26, 12:26 UTC1 ene 35, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "fast-growth" (Explosive AI-driven growth) side of the bet wins.
- It will resolve to NO if the "no-fast-growth" side (which Benjamin Moll is betting on) wins.
- According to the official bet terms, the fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q , up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., at least one year before Q).
- Otherwise, the no-fast-growth side wins.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyKALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volumen total
- 758 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 18,7 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 3,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 15,3 mil €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 200,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 14,5 mil €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 321 mil €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt85%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 52,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
- Above 545,000 jobs97%
- Above 550,000 jobs87%
- Above 555,000 jobs+6.0pt49%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,7 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI in October
- Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- US recession by end of 2026?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- CPI core in November 2026
- GDP growth in 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Está previsto que Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X