Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
InflationOne-OffEconomíaIAMacro & Economy8a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 75%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 54 minutos
Retrasado3 feb 25, 9:03 UTC1 ene 35, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
US nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2036
KalshiWill the World's GDP double in 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline.
- This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
- Resolution Criteria
- Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Mercados abiertos
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 77,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,5 mil €
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035??
- Está previsto que Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.