Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
InflaciónOne-OffEconomíaIAMacro y economía8a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 6:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado3 feb 25, 9:03 UTC1 ene 35, 4:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline.
- This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
- Resolution Criteria
- Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
