Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 17:57 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 72%
Sí 72%Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado3 feb 25, 9:17 UTC1 ene 46, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Reglas
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 10 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
