Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 79%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado3 feb 25, 9:46 UTC1 ene 41, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiJapan Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiReglas
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 2 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
Mercados abiertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,4 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,8 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 548,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 28,8 mil €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 79,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,6 mil €
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 resultados más
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years??
- Está previsto que When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2041.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.