KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Below 15% 72.7%Ajustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
28 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
22,8 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
20.0% / 29.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
28 ago 26, 22:00 UTC26 ene 34, 13:29 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsCPI in September
KalshiInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least
Liquida mediante:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides:
- MacAskill side (fast growth): William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie and Tom Cohen Moll side (no fast growth): Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho
- GROWTH CONDITION
- The MacAskill side wins if, for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2033, U.S. real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the previous peak.
Mercados abiertos
InflationPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt59.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+1.2pt25.5%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt13.7%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 493,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 25,3 mil €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 200,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 14,5 mil €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 321 mil €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt85%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 52,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-1.0pt86%
- No+1.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 70,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,6 mil €
KALSHICPI in October
- Above -0.1%+3.0pt93%
- Above 0.0%-6.0pt85%
- Above 0.1%+7.0pt83%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 37,9 mil €
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- CPI core in November 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Annual
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- September Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- China Annual Inflation 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win??
- Kalshi cotiza Below 15% al 73% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win??
- Está previsto que MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? se resuelva el 26 de enero de 2034.
- ¿Cómo se liquida MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least