Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
GeopolíticaOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 71%
No 71%Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 36 minutos
30 nov 23, 2:39 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
- Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.
- This is the threshold I will also be using for this market.
- I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
