Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?
One-OffOriente MedioGeopolítica15d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.4%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado2 oct 26, 18:28 UTC10 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States military uses (detonates) one or more nuclear weapons targeting Iran's Pickaxe Mountain (Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā) facility at any point between 12:00 AM UTC on November 4, 2026, and 11:59 PM UTC on November 10, 2026, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolution will be determined by credible public reporting or official announcements from the following sources:
- U.S. Department of Defense
- Associated Press
