Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 76.5%
Pronosticadores
102
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado10 nov 22, 16:57 UTC1 ene 38, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.
- It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.
- Bans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.
- For example, "no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters", or "no recurrent neural networks" would resolve this market to YES. "No AI-generated pornography" or "no AI designed to operate a military drone" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.
- In essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence.
- I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.
Mercados abiertos
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+0.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.5pt66%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 558,1 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 resultados más
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 resultados más
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 77% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037??
- Está previsto que Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2038.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.