Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.1%
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado19 mar 26, 2:05 UTC31 may 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.
- I am on the NO side, Geby is on the YES side.
- I will trade this market, but I will resolve according to the votes of the judges.
- The loser of the bet agrees to pay the winner $1000.
- Resolution criteria: A panel of 3 pre-agreed judges reviews the top 20 AI research papers published in May 2027.
- For each paper, judges assess: "Was the research primarily conducted by giving an AI agent a single high-level research goal (e.g. 'Can narrow finetuning produce broadly misaligned LLMs?'), after which the agent autonomously executed the full pipeline: literature review, hypothesis formation, experiment design, code implementation, running experiments, debugging, analyzing results, and writing up findings, with the human only stepping in to approve, reject, or minimally redirect at natural checkpoints?"
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 resultados más
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 44,4 mil €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 74% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027??
- Está previsto que Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? se resuelva el 31 de mayo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.