Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.4%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado7 abr 26, 11:20 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiReglas
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 resultados más
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 44,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 80% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Está previsto que Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.