KalshiCerradoComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado se resolvió: Claude (99%)
Resuelto: 30 sept 2026, 15:12
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 30 sept 2026, 13:46 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Claude99%
Muse1%
ClaudeGanada
GeminiPerdida
ChatGPTPerdida
GrokPerdida
MusePerdida
QwenPerdida
KimiPerdida
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Reglas archivadas a nivel de evento. Los términos exactos de cada resultado ya no están disponibles.
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:LMArena Leaderboard
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.