Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente MedioRusia / UcraniaTecnologíaNegocios y empresas2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 78.5%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado4 feb 26, 3:17 UTC1 ene 27, 3:13 UTC
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Resolves YES if Swift Centre has a better Brier score than Polymarket, across their five forecasts.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Context: Swift Centre claims that Polymarket is not the ultimate source of truth and that their forecasters can beat Polymarket.
- https://www.swiftcentre.org/publicforecasts/yk77y2zct07ttcl00lmuk2x2s629fh
- Here were their five forecasts:
- 1) The Swift Centre forecasters saw a ~4% chance of the United States acquiring Greenland in 2026, distinctly lower than the 12% that was on the relevant Polymarket question.