Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.6%
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6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado12 ago 26, 16:29 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Limitless[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Detailed Rules for Resolution:
- Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.
- Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 60% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days??
- Está previsto que Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria