Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 53.4%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado27 oct 25, 22:32 UTC8 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government completes its full 4-year term from 2025 to 2029.
- The market resolves NO if the government dissolves before the end of 2029, triggering early elections or a change in the governing coalition through other constitutional means.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the German Federal President or Bundestag regarding the dissolution of parliament or a change in government.
- The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition.
- On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement, and the German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025.