Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 86.4%
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado27 feb 25, 10:06 UTC31 oct 29, 22:59 UTC
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Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
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KalshiNext German federal election winner?
KalshiReglas
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013.
- In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
- This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
- The market resolves to NO if:
- The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
- The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election
