KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
No 57%
Calidad del mercado
55 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
595,6 €
Liquidez
661,5 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
39.0% / 43.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 minutos
24 ago 26, 21:00 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeAgence France-Presse
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.
- The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi cotiza No al 57% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Está previsto que AfD in a German state government in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ¿Dónde más está listado AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Polymarket.