Punto medio del libro seleccionado
No · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Referencia guardada
No 63%
No 63%Calidad del mercado
42 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
572,4 €
Liquidez
1,4 mil €
Baja liquidezInterés abierto
19,9 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comentarios
13
Cambio 7d
-7.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
20 ago 26, 18:09 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · No
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President.
- In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
- A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office.
- Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Kalshi — AfD in a German state government? · Before Jan 1, 2030 95%