Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 77.8%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado9 feb 26, 15:14 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria