Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 71%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado9 feb 26, 15:14 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketAfD in a German state government?
KalshiWill any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsGerman "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)
Manifold MarketsWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.