Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 95.2%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado27 oct 25, 22:27 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)?
- Está previsto que German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria