PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 86%-1.0pt
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
11 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
13.0% / 16.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
4
Cambio 7d
+2.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
3 dic 25, 17:17 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
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PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
- A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
- If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
- If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
Mercados abiertos
Foreign ExchangeKALSHIUSD/JPY price on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 153.500 to 153.74979%
- 153.250 to 153.49938%
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- 9,5 mil €
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KALSHIEURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- Above 1.14199%
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- 21,9 mil €
KALSHIEUR/USD price range on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 1.16400 to 1.1659954.5%
- 1.16200 to 1.1639924.2%
- 1.16600 to 1.167996.1%
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- 5,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.