PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actualSí 13%
Calidad del mercado
40 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
13,5 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
12.0% / 14.0%
Spread
16.7%
Spread amplioCambio 7d
+0.5%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 minutos
3 dic 25, 17:1731 dic 26, 0:00
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Yes13%
Tendencia de volumen
$132 jul19d de datos23 jul
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Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
- A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
- If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
- If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”