Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.2%
Pronosticadores
54
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 35 minutos
22 ene 25, 10:36 UTC1 feb 27, 21:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
This market was created as the direct opposite of @chrisjbillington’s “Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War” with identical resolution criteria, but instead for Russia.
- https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
- Identical criteria with “Ukraine” replaced with “Russia”:
- This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Russian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Russia is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Ukraine or some coalition of which Ukraine is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Russian victory" or "Russian victory with territorial losses(/gains)".
