Will Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRusia / Ucrania2m
FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosProbabilidad implícita actual
No 92%
No 92%Calidad del mercado
33 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
1 mil €
Baja liquidezTraders
6
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Another commercial vessel struck in Black Sea by which date?
PolymarketWill Black Sea Grain Initiative be reactivated by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control 100% of donbass before 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of January 2027?
Manifold MarketsRussia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
FutuurReglas
This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will control Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as of December 31, 2026.
- For this market, control means effective military or legally recognized control preventing Ukraine from accessing these seas.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Ukrainian government statements or widely recognized international reporting confirming such control.
- If Russia effectively controls Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If Russia controls only part of Ukraine’s sea access, Futuur may use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective control.