Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Medio4m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 65.9%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado16 mar 26, 21:29 UTC16 mar 27, 21:28 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile.
- This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.
- Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.).
- The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.
- Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend.