Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East6mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 65.9%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado16 mar 26, 21:29 UTC16 mar 27, 21:28 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile.
- This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.
- Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.).
- The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.
- Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 66% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors??
- Está previsto que Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors? se resuelva el 16 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria