In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Medio2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNovember 2026 43.4%Líder entre 17 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+5.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado1 ago 26, 18:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES for any month in which there are at least three consecutive calendar days (using Israel Standard Time, IST) where air raid sirens or red alerts are triggered in any part of Israel by missiles or drones launched directly from Iranian territory.
- Otherwise, those months will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Sirens" refers to official alerts (Tzeva Adom / Red Alert) or air raid sirens issued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref).
- "Caused by Iranian missiles" requires that the projectiles (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or explosive UAVs/drones) were launched directly from Iranian soil.