Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 83.3%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado22 jun 24, 4:49 UTC1 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050?
Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiChina overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExReglas
Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp
- If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from IMF.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030??
- Está previsto que Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp