Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 67.8%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado6 jul 26, 18:48 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsElectricity generation per capita: Will China overtake the US by end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of December 31, 2030, the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a China-headquartered entity achieves parity with or surpasses the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a US-headquartered entity.
- Resolution will be determined sequentially using the following sources:
- Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI): If Epoch AI is active and tracking capabilities as of December 31, 2030, this market resolves to YES if the highest-rated model developed by a China-headquartered organization has an ECI score equal to or higher than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization.
- LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard: If the ECI is unavailable, this market resolves to YES if the top model developed by a China-headquartered organization on the overall LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard has an Arena Elo rating equal to or higher than the top model developed by a US-headquartered organization as of December 31, 2030.
- Stanford AI Index / CSET Reports: If both of the above metrics are defunct, the market will resolve to YES if the closest Stanford AI Index Report (e.g., the 2031 report tracking 2030 progress) or research from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) explicitly states that Chinese frontier models have matched or overtaken US frontier models in capability.