Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 76.5%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 46 minutos
Retrasado28 mar 24, 12:13 UTC1 ene 40, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will allow AI to start it's own company by 2040?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketU.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.
- I will use my own judgement to decide if AI has started a war.
- If an AI convinces someone to launch a missile or fire a gun and it starts a war this will resolve yes.
- AI spreading misinformation that starts a war will also resolve yes.
- If AI is only used as a tool in war and doesn’t start it it will resolve no.
- If there is no consensus in 2040 the close date will be extended.