When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Middle EastGeopolíticaPolítica6mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualOther 40.7%Líder entre 8 opciones
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12
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado9 mar 26, 16:17 UTC9 mar 27, 16:14 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.
- His son has succeeded him.
- If he should die or step down, who will end up replacing him? Have added five options, including a “no one = regime change” option that covers a scenario of regime collapse after his death / resignation.
- Resolving yes for an option will happen when the Assembly of Experts announces a new leader, and/or this person acknowledges and accepts the title, and/or there is a clear formal ceremony or swearing in event, and/or someone emerges and is clearly referred to as the Supreme Leader by other senior clerics and significant political figures.
- If the regime collapses and no supreme leader replaces Khamenei 2, then will resolve to that option.
- If there is a power-sharing or ongoing interim rule situation, this option will resolve “yes” after 1 year of there being no new Supreme Leader.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Other al 41% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader??
- Está previsto que When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader? se resuelva el 9 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: 85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.