When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Oriente MedioGeopolíticaPolítica4m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualOther 40.7%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado9 mar 26, 16:17 UTC9 mar 27, 16:14 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.
- His son has succeeded him.
- If he should die or step down, who will end up replacing him? Have added five options, including a “no one = regime change” option that covers a scenario of regime collapse after his death / resignation.
- Resolving yes for an option will happen when the Assembly of Experts announces a new leader, and/or this person acknowledges and accepts the title, and/or there is a clear formal ceremony or swearing in event, and/or someone emerges and is clearly referred to as the Supreme Leader by other senior clerics and significant political figures.
- If the regime collapses and no supreme leader replaces Khamenei 2, then will resolve to that option.
- If there is a power-sharing or ongoing interim rule situation, this option will resolve “yes” after 1 year of there being no new Supreme Leader.
