What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 71.2%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado29 ago 26, 8:29 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.
- This market resolves to NO if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran is signed by the required belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine achieves the same.
- Signatory & Conflict Scope
- Russia–Ukraine: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of both Russia and Ukraine.
- Iran Conflict: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of Iran AND either (a) the United States, (b) Israel, or (c) both.
- Signing with one state satisfies the condition provided all hostilities between Iran and that signatory state formally terminate under the treaty terms.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 71% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Está previsto que What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.