Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualExplicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) 92.4%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado4 mar 26, 18:36 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?
- Independent.
- Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.
- Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.
- Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)
- Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026?
- Está previsto que U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?