US-Iran nuclear deal [Kalshi] resolves the same as US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal [Polymarket]
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Medio2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 23 oct 2026, 21:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 78%
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8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado13 jul 26, 20:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Polymarket and Kalshi have a tendency to resolve differently and controversially.
- Recently Polymarket resolved Yes to a permanent peace deal with the Iran and US, while Kalshi did not.
- Resolves yes, if the following markets resolve Yes more or less to the same news:
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27?op_market_ticker=KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG&op_order_side=no&op_side=BUY&op_order_type=limit
- https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412