Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore Jan 2027 13.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-4.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado30 ene 26, 23:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement or peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming the agreement's existence and implementation.
- The agreement must include a cessation of active hostilities.
- Technical or temporary pauses in fighting do not qualify.
- If a ceasefire is signed but subsequently violated before year-end, the market still resolves YES if the agreement was formally executed.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before Jan 2027 al 14% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- Está previsto que The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria