Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual0 72.9%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado7 dic 25, 5:48 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Steve Kirsch/Rootclaim bet about COVID-19 vaccine deaths resolve to a tie?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketReglas
This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
- @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA
- @/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL
- @/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
- @/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f
- @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 0 al 73% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes??
- Está previsto que Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets: