Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 74.4%
Pronosticadores
34
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 26, 15:05 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years?
Manifold MarketsChina will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?
PolymarketUS x Cuba economic deal by which date?
PolymarketWorld Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):
- 1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.
- Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).
- Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.
- A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.