Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?
GeopolíticaOne-OffWeatherRussia / UkraineEurope9mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86%
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11
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado12 jul 26, 17:43 UTC10 jul 27, 22:59 UTC
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Prediction from the interview: Prof John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Strike Europe If Two Conditions Are Met
- [link preview]Mearsheimer mentions 2 conditions/criteria. 1.
- Russia does not develop the capability to minimize the effects of the drone strikes. 2.
- Russia does not win militarily on the battlefield.
- Mearsheimer did not make a timeline but it sounds on his prediction like this will be next step for the Russians so I think 1 year is a generous amount of time to give the prediction.
- The question resolves to "Yes" if both criteria is fulfilled and Russia does attack European targets outside of Ukraine and Russia.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine??
- Está previsto que Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine? se resuelva el 10 de julio de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Prediction from the interview: Prof John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Strike Europe If Two Conditions Are Met